Goldman Sachs says this ‘Goldilocks’ stock market could be in for a shock before the end of the year

In a note headlined “Goldilocks continues to escape the bears,” Christian Mueller-Glissmann and his team at Goldman Sachs argued this morning that the stock market continues to be boosted by optimism around AI and tech companies. At the same time, investors are enjoying an environment in which the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver at least one—and maybe two—more rounds of cheaper money this year.

A Goldilocks economy is, as the name might suggest, something of a fairy-tale scenario: The economy is neither too hot (leading to rampant inflation) nor too cold (leading to slowing growth). It is, as the story goes, “just right.”

But Goldilocks could be in for a shock before the end of the year, Mueller-Glissmann wrote. “There is a risk that Goldilocks meets one of the three bears,” he says. 

The S&P 500 closed up 0.59% on Friday, close to its all-time high. S&P futures were up a solid 0.53% this morning prior to the opening bell, so investors are indeed in a good mood. 

They are not alone. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told CNBC this morning that she doesn’t see the market pricing in a “material drawback” anytime soon. And SoFi’s head of investment strategy, Liz Thomas, recently published a fascinating comparison between today’s S&P 500 and that of the late 1990s, immediately prior to the end of the dotcom bubble. The two markets are spookily similar to each other, she says, but “the clearest takeaway here is if the two cycles do end up resembling each other, we’ve still got some runway before this market rally loses steam.”

So what are the bears Goldman Sachs is worrying about? They are …

• “A growth shock,” owing to increased unemployment or “disappointments on AI.”
• “A rate shock,” a result of the Fed not delivering more rate cuts.
• “A new dollar bear,” in which the greenback loses another 10% of its value (as it did in the first half of this year), which would hurt foreign investors in U.S. stocks—and turn them away from the American market.

Fear not! (At least in the short-term.) “So far none of those shocks have materialized,” Mueller-Glissmann says. But “we think the risk of growth and rate shocks into year-end remains.”

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

• S&P 500 futureswere up 0.5% this morning. The index closed up 0.59% in its last session.
• The STOXX Europe 600was up 0.23% in early trading. 
• The U.K.’s FTSE 100was up 0.58% in early trading.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225was down 0.69%.
• China’s CSI 300was up 1.54%.
• The South Korea KOSPIwas up 1.33%.
• India’s Nifty 50was flat before the end of the session.
• Bitcoinrose to $112K.

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